A little knowledge of the history of population census in Nigeria would reveal the Chairman is simply throwing figures around based on flawed statistical data. History has revealed that the Nigerian Population figure is at best a tool to ensure a section of the country continues to get the biggest pieces of the economic and political national cakes.
The first brush I had with an organized census was in 2006. Then, the President, Olusegun Obasanjo, invested a lot of money to make sure the country got it right.
The National Orientation Agency (NOA) spent lots money on ads and roadshows educating Nigerians why they should ensure only accurate information are given to the enumerators.
The NOA went to great lengths to convince people that the figures are needed for proper planning and not for sharing of the country’s revenue.
You’d know there was something wrong the way government worked hard to convince people population census had nothing to do with revenue sharing.
The government was absolutely correct that accurate figures are needed for adequate planning. But don’t be deceived; revenue sharing is at the core of censuses in Nigeria.
It is simple really; the more people there are in a particular area, the more infrastructures would be provided there. Invariably, that means more money pushed there to build hospitals, roads, schools, and other utilities to cater for the people residing there.
Even some important political decisions are based on the population of the area. For instance, one critical variable in creating Local Governments Areas by Past administration was to consider the population of the area. That is why some states have more representatives in the country’s House of Representatives.
Politicians even use these figures to rig future elections. They simply use the population census of an area to rationalize the size of the voter’s register for the area.
Even if people don’t register to vote, they simply add phantom names to the voter’s register to reflect the population of the area. You must have got the gist about the ways population censuses are used politically by now.
In countries where things work, a national census is supposed to be carried out periodically. The universal standard is every ten years.
Before the 2006 census, the last attempt to count Nigerians accurately was in 1991. That is a whopping 15 years. But that is nothing compared to the 18 years interval between the 1973 census and the 1991 census.
Conducting a population census in Nigeria is not the problem here. It is the controversy that follows the release of the census figures.
Take the case of the 1973 census for instance. The controversy was so bad it had to be canceled just like other censuses before it. It took Nigeria 18 years from that point to muster enough political will to conduct another one.
Here is an excerpt of what the revered Obafemi Awolowo said about the 1973 census results:
“This brings me to the 1973 census result. I have examined this result from several standpoints which times does not permit me to elaborate upon here, and as a result, I have been irresistibly impelled to the conclusion that the so-called PROVISIONAL FIGURES are absolutely unreliable and should be totally rejected by the Supreme Military Council
According to the provisional figures, the population of North-East and Kano States alone is almost equal to that of the South put together. And if the utterly false trends of population growths in the States, indicated by the provisional figures, were contrived and repeated in 1983 —and one cannot now see, if the provisional figures are allowed to stand, why a repeat performance should not occur in 1983; if the same trends were repeated in 1983 by the same contrivances, then 74 per cent of all Nigerians would be living in the North, ten years from now.”
Many Nigerians North of the Niger agreed completely with the late sage. Expectedly, the military government at the time, headed by General Yakubu Gowon, and Nigerians from the North tried to ram the provisional figures down the throats of the rest of the country.
Finally, due to the relentless resistance of people like Awolowo, the Government had to cancel the provisional figures.
According to many commentators, the 1991 census organized by the regime of Ibrahim Babangida was the most scientific and accurate in the history of Nigeria.
However, that didn’t stop it courting controversy.
What Awolowo had warned back in 1973 came to haunt a people who never learn anything from their mistakes and history. Again, the issues raised in 1973 completely rubbished the figures released after the 1991 census.
A look at few cases from those figures would crystallize what the whole farce is all about.
Kano and Jigawa states used to one state until Babangida carved Jigawa out of Kano in August 1991. From the 1991 figures, the combined population of both states is about eight and a half million (8,461,968). What that means is that the old Kano state had far more people than Lagos State whose population stood at just above five and a half million (5,685,785).
It doesn’t end there. Even Kano state alone had a figure (5,632,040) that is almost at par with the population of Lagos State. How can any logical mind believe that an area that is largely desert is more populous than a coastal area with the biggest economy in the country?
The same 1991 census, acclaimed to be the best in the history of the country, had figures that showed that old Sokoto State (comprising Sokoto and Kebbi states) had more inhabitants than Lagos state. The same thing with the old Kaduna state made up Kaduna and Katsina States.
It is simply ridiculous that even Bauchi had more people living there than states such as Rivers, Delta, Enugu, Oyo, Ondo, and Anambra states among others. In fact, Bauchi has a higher population than every single State in the South apart from Lagos according to the 1991 figures.
The government, or the apologists of those figures since this problem started, try to justify those figures by pointing to the land mass of states in the North. They say these vast empty stretches of land with no significant settlements outside the towns are inhabited by lots of people.
From there, you get the worn-out logic that over 70% of the population of Nigeria resides in remote rural areas. That should account for those ridiculous figures!
The 2006 census figures didn’t fare any better. A similar pattern with the 1991 figures cropped up again: the North, that is largely a desert and clearly sparsely populated, has more people living there than some of the most vibrant states in the South.
You can go on and on picking holes in these figures. It is not hard. Even a kid with half knowledge of elementary geography would spot the irregularities in those figures given enough time.
The reason those numbers for the North are so high is simply down to inflation of the numbers. And of course, there is the complicity of the ruling southern elites pandering to the wishes of the North.
Clearly, the leaders from the current South don’t have the balls to put a stop to this nonsense that had been perpetrated for so long.
And talking about balls or guts or what Nigerians call ‘liver’, Festus Odimegwu was the only top government appointee with the courage to tell Nigerians the truth.
The former Chairman of Nigerian Breweries PLC was appointed the Chairman of the National Population Commission in June 2016. His brief was to conduct the national census in 2016.
Festus Odimegwu didn’t just sit in his office and collect his salary. He went about lampooning all censuses held in Nigeria. He was very vocal in condemning some of the results. Here is one of the things he said back then:
“No census has been credible in Nigeria since 1816. Even the one conducted in 2006 is not credible. I have the records and evidence produced by scholars and professors of repute; this is not my report. If the current laws are not amended, the planned 2016 census will not succeed”
Odimegwu would have none of that. He amplified the volume of his criticisms. At last, the country had somebody who was willing to do the right thing.
But Nigerians didn’t bargain with Goodluck Jonathan’s lack of balls. That is one thing Jonathan was best known for. He was so weak all he wanted to do was smile his way along and please people he was politically scared of.
It is on record that he ordered Odimegwu to tone down on his rhetoric. But by them it was too late.
The vested interest now knew a man who wouldn’t agree to manipulate the census figures was in charge of the NPC. They couldn’t risk having him remain in that office to preside over the next census. Pressure was applied on Jonathan to sack him.
As a compromise, Jonathan advised the NPC Chairman that to avoid the humiliation of being sacked; he was advised to tender his resignation. In October 2013, Festus Odimegwu tendered his resignation which was duly accepted by the President.
This wasn’t the only time Jonathan would do this to a courageous government appointee. Sanusi Laimido Sanusi, the former Governor of the Central Bank and now the Emir of Kano, suffered the same fate when he made Jonathan and his people uncomfortable with the truth.
He was eased out of the Central Bank job after insisting that billions of dollars belonging to Nigeria were not coming into the treasury. Most implicated was the NNPC under the powerful Minister of Petroleum then.
The current revelations of the massive looting of the treasury by the last administration have vindicated the Emir of Kano.
Perhaps, these are the sort of issues making the government or those in charge of ruling the country reluctant to reintroduce history as a subject in Nigeria.
They simply don’t want kids to know how a group of people from a particular region consistently try to hold back the country with policies that have no place in a developing country.
It is doubtful if Eze Duruiheoma, the current chairman of the NPC, has the cojones to stand up to the vested interests. It looks like he just wants to do his job without stepping on any toes. And as for inflation of population, it seems he is already down with the idea.
The NPC website has a population counter giving the current approximate population of Nigeria. At the time of writing this, the current estimated population is one hundred and eighty-four million, two hundred and thirty-four thousand, seven hundred and ninety-seven (184234797) people and counting. That is way short of the 198 million figure he announced last week.
Fingers crossed though that Nigerians get the real figures after the next census.
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